NHL Picks, Fri 02/14. This season: + $12688 (286-241-49)

[Mathemagician]

Today’s investments:

Phoenix 0.5 +122 / estimate -102 / wager $300
Tampa Bay -0.5 +119 / estimate +101 / wager $300
Pittsburgh ML +176 / estimate +115 / wager $300

Min - Pho Under 5 -139 / estimate -204 / wager $100
NYR - Pit Under 5.5 +113 / estimate -122 / wager $100

Click here for Mathemagician’s detailed track record and more information for NHL 2002-2003

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Mathemagician’s analysis is based on many years experience of odds making in NHL and other sports. Methods used in odds making process include careful pre-season analysis, continuous measuring of each teams abilities using power ratings and considering the daily news in each individual game.

The pre-season analysis includes mathematical and statistical analysis and determination of the changes caused by the transactions. The power rating database is always updated after each game and every published estimate is adjusted to consider injuries, fatigue caused by the schedule, different motivations and many other factors.

The pick is profitable in the long run only if the current price is higher than the estimate. Otherwise the bet is not worth placing.

 

[TWayne]

HOPING TO SEE PICK THE EXACT SCORE PROPS, SALAMI, HOME VS ROAD ON THE SITE. LIKE I SAID, the MOST COMPLETE OFFERING WOULD CERTAINLY BE THERE.

WHAT OTHER SPORTS AROUND THE GLOBE DO/HAVE YOU RATED?

 

[TWayne]

ARE YOU AN ADVOCATE OF THE KELLY? I NOTE YOUR PIX TEND TO BE AN EXPECTED VALUE OF 1.10 OR MORE; 10% EDGE. SENSIBLE CUT-OFF POINT!

 

[Mathemagician]

It is very likely that we will extend our selection in the future.
Research is currently being done on several other sports, but the decisions about when and which sports we will provide have not been made yet.
Next season (2003-2004) we will however start with NHL only.

Fixed stakes are used in our picks for simplicity reasons. We want our recommendations to be simple enough for all the newcomers to easily understand what SportsDiscover.com picks are all about. That means compromizing between scientific and down-to-earth approaches.

Fixed percentage stakes are also less riskier than the Kelly-stakes as long as the percentage to bet is small enough. We rather encourage people to make steady profit than to go for higher profit with higher risks. Therefore our advice is to use fixed percentage stakes that fit in your own risk profile. Just don't let your stakes exceed the percentual stakes recommended in our picks or you might start losing because of overbetting.

But of course anyone who has profound understanding on risk management and the principles behind the Kelly Criterion, can achieve much better results compared to our records. But as a warning to everyone who don't completely understand the theory behind the Kelly Criterion, it's much safer to stick with fixed stakes. Theoretically the Kelly Criterion is the optimal staking scheme, but in real life it's easy to misuse it and cause only more harm, especially for beginners.